For this market, CHP capacity is expected to grow by nearly 8100 MW for the nation, and nearly 1900 MW for our region. Growth is expected in system sizes less than 50 MW. Additionally, CHP for mechanical drive and cooling applications is expected to increase substantially.
CHP technical potential
National Trends
For Food Manufacturing, CHP future technical potential is estimated to be 8,086 MW in power and 219 Tbtu in steam.1,2 Technical potential is simply the total capacity that is technically feasible. Of individual industrial market sectors, Food Manufacturing has the third largest CHP potential after Paper Manufacturing and Chemicals.
CHP technical potential by system size and by industry. Food potential is 8,086 MW. "Non-IOF" refers to those industries that are not "Industries of the Future" as designated by the US Department of Energy [Onsite Energy, 2001]
The graph above and the table below show that growth is expected in the 0-4 MW and 4-50 MW size classes. Very little growth is expected in the > 50 MW systems.
| US CHP growth by system size [Onsite Sycom, 2000] |
| System Size |
Food (MW) |
| < 1 MW |
2669 |
| 1 - 4 MW |
1688 |
| 4 - 20 MW |
2136 |
| 20 - 50 MW |
1267 |
| > 50 MW |
325 |
| Total |
8,086 |
This pattern is opposite to current system sizes. The majority of existing capacity is in the >50 MW class. (See Current Status for more information).
CHP potential is not distributed evenly across sub sectors.1 The graph below shows the potential in megawatts for individual food processing industries. Poultry, canned vegetables, meat and malt beverages have the highest potential.
Remaining potential in the food industry (Source: Onsite Energy, 2001)
CHP mechanical drive and process cooling potential in various industries. Source: Onsite Energy, 2001
Regional Trends
In our three state region (LA, OK, TX), future industrial CHP capacity for the Food Manufacturing market is expected to grow by 1870 MW.3 This figure represents approximately 17% of the total future CHP industrial capacity for our region - a much higher percentage than food manufacturing represents currently. This statistic points to food manufacturing as an attractive market sector for CHP growth.
The regional industrial CHP capacity is expected to total 11,000 MW. Food makes up 17% of this capacity. (Source: Hedman, 2005)
CHP economic potential
Economic potential is the technical potential subjected to an economic screening process. Important among the screening criteria are the capital cost of the CHP system (design, equipment and installation), operating and maintenance costs, and the fuel price for the CHP system relative to competing sources of power and heat, otherwise known as the "spark spread".
The spark spread can be critical. The price for the CHP system fuel has an important impact on whether a project is economic or not. Duel fuel systems or opportunity fuels, such as biomass; offer some stability in times of volatile fuel pricing. In duel fuel systems, if the price of one fuel becomes uneconomic, the CHP system can be switched to a different fuel and continue to be profitable. Every project is unique, so careful screening of projects is imperative. For more on this topic, see Benefits and Challenges.
The following economic potentials refer to national capacity, not regional capacity. At this time, no estimates of economic potential by market are available for our region.
National CHP potential - In 2003, a series of economic screening models were run by Resource Dynamics that examined future CHP potential in various market sectors. This study estimated approximately 2500 MW additional economic potential for the food manufacturing market.4 Based on this study, the paper market has the fourth highest potential, behind the chemicals, primary metals and paper industries.4 Keep in mind that assumptions were made in this study that have an impact on the final results. (See their report (992 KB) for model input parameters.)
National CHP Cooling Potential - In this same study, Resource Dynamics (2003) calculated that there was 110,000 tons of potential cooling capacity.4 Again in this category, Food manufacturing ranks fourth in potential, but this time behind the electronics, refining and chemicals industries.
In summary, CHP potential for power generation, mechanical drive and cooling applications is expected to be strong.
References
Onsite Energy (2001)
This report describes the current capacity and remaining technical potential for on-site power generation in the US industrial sector. Results are reported for individual industries, and in some cases, for sub sectors within industries. General economic and environmental benefits of CHP are discussed along with CHP-related initiatives for individual industries.
Onsite Sycom (January 2000)
The report describes CHP technologies, CHP current capacity and future technical capacity for the industrial sector in the United States. Also included is a section discussing the factors that fostered or inhibited CHP adoption, along with recommendations to increase CHP implementation in the future.
Hedman, B. (2005)
Presentation given at the Gulf Coast CHP Roadmapping Workshop, which reviews the status of existing CHP at the national level, and compares national results with existing CHP in Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas. Technical potential for additional CHP in this three state region is also provided.
Resource Dynamics (August 2003)
This report analyses the CHP potential (Including cooling applications) for a range of industrial markets using CHP systems up to 50 MW in size. Data modeling allows for identification of the best technology for each industry, and these data are a further modeled under a range of economic scenarios to provide information on the number of potential sites.